Family Planning policy influences on the induced abortion in China: trend analysis from 1979 to 2013
ESC Congress Library. Zhang W. May 4, 2016; 126835; A-008
Prof. Dr. Wei-Hong Zhang
Prof. Dr. Wei-Hong Zhang
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In China, Family Planning (FP) policy has implemented since 1979 for birth control. Induced abortion is legal and available on request for women and is a commonly used way to end an unplanned or unintended pregnancy. The annual number of abortion in China has been reported between 6 to 13 million by different sources. The abortion data is needed to monitor progress toward improvement of maternal health and access to family planning services. This study assesses trend in the number of induced abortion in China from 1979 to 2013.


The numbers of induced abortion were obtained from ‘Health Statistical Yearbook of China (2013)'. The FP policy was referenced by ‘State Council Gazette of the People's Republic of China' and ‘Review of Population and Family Planning Event of China'.  All the data was included in analyzing the tendency, while only the data after 1990 was used to forecast. Dynamic series analysis was used to analyze both tendency and forecast, ARMA (1,1) and GM (1,1) were  used to forecast.


The growth ratio of abortion were varied from -38.14% to 45.73%. The number of abortion began to increase after the implementation of one-child policy in 1979, and reached its highest level in the early 1980s until beginning of 1990s, the period when the PF policy was strictly executed. The predict value of abortion numbers in 2013 according to three forecast methods are 6,346 910, 6, 456 978 and 6,833 985 respectively. And considering the ‘two-child policy for only-child parent' beginning from 2013, the number of abortion might be lower than 6,833,985.


FP policy in China influences on the number of induced abortion. Reproductive health is a right for all that includes the right of access to safe, effective, affordable and acceptable methods of FP to avoid unintended or unplanned pregnancy.


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